Daily Outlook

Cherish

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  • Nifty achieved 9117 and fell down some two hundred points from there
  • For 5th March 2015 – Nifty is likely to trade between 8949 and 8823 levels. The Bias is negative, but outlook is primarily rangebound
  1. Momentum: The BSAR Pivot is at 8826. The RSI (14) is at 59.8 Dn by 5.7 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, RSI (14) tends to get Overbought above 68 Oversold below 40 The W%R (29) is at -30.2 Dn by 28 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, the W%R (29) tends to get overbought above -4 and Oversold below -67. The RSI (5) smoothed using Inverse Fisher Transform is at 86.3 a change of -13.2 points; the maximum value achieved in last three session is 99.5
  2. Trend: The ADX (14) is at 22.5 Up by 1.3 points from previous close. The VHF(29) is at 0.28 Dn by 0 points. For CNX Nifty the ADX (14) usually hovers between 35 and 15 and VHF (29) usually hovers between 0.46 and 0.24
  3. Price Action: On Wed 04 Mar 2015, the CNX Nifty Index opened at 9109.15 ( 146 Points Higher than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 9119.2 ( 110 Points Higher than Previous High ) it made a low of 8893.95 ( -32 Points Lower than Previous Low ) closed at 8922.65 ( -74 Points Lower than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 256,060,375 ( 40% Higher than last trading session, and about 33.3% Higher than Average. The Volume figures were about 169.91% of Standard Deviation Above the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q2, the Second Quartile of it’s True Range. The Color of the candle was Black with the wick was equal to 10.05 Points, and the body was equal to 186.5 and lower shadow was equal to 28.7
  4. Moving Averages and Pivot Points: The 5 Day Moving Average is at, 8913; and the Short Term 13 Day Moving Average is 8850; and the 34 Day Moving Average is at 8766; and Medium Term 50 Day Moving Average is 8603; and the Long Term, 200 Day Moving Average is at 8060. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH
  5. Market Breadth: As on Wed 04 Mar 2015, the Market Breadth was 0.39, which is considered as Poor , while at the end of the last trading session it was 1.72. The McClellan Oscillator reading was -5.38, which is considered as Normal
  6. Nifty is going to be Extremely Over Sold at 8743, Over Sold at 8793 the mean is at 8914, Over Bought at 9035 and Extremely Over Bought at 9085
  7. Volumes: On Wednesday 04 Mar 2015 Volume was 256,060,375 which was Above Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Below Average – somewhere around 197,000,000. The MFI reading was 74 while previously it was 73.1. The MFI tends to get Overbought above 72 and Oversold below 38
  8. Trend as per volume data: As per the EOD data available, the 2 EMA of Force Index (FI) read in conjunction with the 13 EMA of FI and 21 SMA of Closing Prices indicates that Nifty is currently BUY ON DIPS
  9. Index Futures: The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Wednesday 04 Mar 2015 was 28,639,700 while previously it was 29,457,600 a change of -2.78% which is considered to be The Cost of Carry of the Current Series Expiring on 26-Mar-2015 was 6.25% while previously it was 10.30% while the change in Open Interest was -3.31% which might suggest LONGS UNWINDING in the Current Series. The Cost of Carry of the Mid Series Expiring on 30-Apr-2015 was 7.25% while previously it was 8.73% while the change in Open Interest was 8.65% which might suggest SHORTS ADDITION in the mid series.
  10. Index Options : The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Wednesday 04 Mar 2015 was 81,135,600 while previously it was 79,420,575 a change of 2.16%
  11. USDINR Pair: The RBI Reference Rate for 1 US Dollar was 61.8543 and it Gained against the INR by about 0.0156 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was -3.9% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 24,90,540. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 62.041



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Daily Outlook

Short Update

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  • Recap: Outlook for Wednesday: Nifty seems to be ready for a bounce towards 8872 and beyond. A close above 8900 would be singularly bullish
  • Nifty failed to bounce beyond the old resistance of 8840, and has finally come down to test 8628 – 8664 zone.
  • The first confirmation of a reversal would be a close above 8745
  • The 8628 – 8664 range is a potential reversal zone. Major Pivots below this zone are at 8565, 8531, 8470, and 8393
  • The target of 9117 would be negated if Nifty closed below 8470.



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Daily Outlook

Joy (in my heart)

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  • Recap from last post on Friday:For Monday, 23 Feb 2015, Nifty is expected to continue in consolidation mode, with a visit to 8920 a distinct possibility.
  • Nifty opened at 8856 made a high of 8869 and then fell down to 8736. However Nifty Index Futures gapped up by about 100 points in all three series as compared with the gap up of mere 23 points in the Nifty Index. So the prediction in terms of Futures was correct. However there was no aberration in Call Options opening.
  • Options Data suggest across the board Call unwinding. On the other hand there was no interest in Put Writing also. This is basically a bullish picture, where bulls are confident and bears are waiting for a confirmation.
  • Futures Data suggest that there was short covering at lower levels followed by long additions in the March Series.
  • Outlook for Wednesday: Nifty seems to be ready for a bounce towards 8872 and beyond. A close above 8900 would be singularly bullish
  1. Price Action: On Tue 24 Feb 2015, the CNX Nifty Index opened at 8772.9 ( -84 Points Lower than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 8800.5 ( -69 Points Lower than Previous High ) it made a low of 8726.75 ( -10 Points Lower than Previous Low ) closed at 8762.1 ( 7 Points Higher than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 154,368,611 ( 7% Higher than last trading session, and about -12.3% Lower than Average. The Volume figures were about -55.99% of Standard Deviation Below the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q2, the Second Quartile of it’s True Range. The Color of the candle was Black with the wick was equal to 27.6 Points, and the body was equal to 10.8 and lower shadow was equal to 35.35
  2. Momentum: The BSAR Pivot is at 8741. The RSI (14) is at 54.8 Up by 0.4 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, RSI (14) tends to get Overbought above 68 Oversold below 40 The W%R (29) is at -30.8 Up by 0.9 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, the W%R (29) tends to get overbought above -4 and Oversold below -67. The RSI (5) smoothed using Inverse Fisher Transform is at 29.6 a change of 6.4 points; the minimum value achieved in last three session is 23.2
  3. Trend: The ADX (14) is at 21.9 Dn by 0.7 points from previous close. The VHF(29) is at 0.4 Up by 0 points. For CNX Nifty the ADX (14) usually hovers between 35 and 15 and VHF (29) usually hovers between 0.46 and 0.24
  4. Moving Averages and Pivot Points: The 5 Day Moving Average is at, 8788; and the Short Term 13 Day Moving Average is 8764; and the 34 Day Moving Average is at 8636; and Medium Term 50 Day Moving Average is 8507; and the Long Term, 200 Day Moving Average is at 7986. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH
  5. Market Breadth: As on Tue 24 Feb 2015, the Market Breadth was 0.59, which is considered as Poor , while at the end of the last trading session it was 0.55. The McClellan Oscillator reading was -19.29, which is considered as Normal
  6. Nifty is going to be Extremely Over Sold at 8636, Over Sold at 8680 the mean is at 8788, Over Bought at 8897 and Extremely Over Bought at 8941
  7. Volumes: On Tuesday 24 Feb 2015 Volume was 154,368,611 which was Below Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Below Average – somewhere around 177,500,000. The MFI reading was 58.5 while previously it was 57.3. The MFI tends to get Overbought above 72 and Oversold below 38
  8. Trend as per volume data: As per the EOD data available, the 2 EMA of Force Index (FI) read in conjunction with the 13 EMA of FI and 21 SMA of Closing Prices indicates that Nifty is currently BUY ON DIPS
  9. Index Futures: The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Tuesday 24 Feb 2015 was 28,323,075 while previously it was 27,023,300 a change of 4.81% which is considered to be SIGNIFICANT The Cost of Carry of the Current Series Expiring on 26-Feb-2015 was 23.31% while previously it was -2.08% while the change in Open Interest was -23.15% which might suggest SHORTS UNWINDING in the Current Series. The Cost of Carry of the Mid Series Expiring on 26-Mar-2015 was 8.73% while previously it was 8.16% while the change in Open Interest was 49.92% which might suggest LONGS ADDITION in the mid series.
  10. Index Options : The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Tuesday 24 Feb 2015 was 110,853,400 while previously it was 112,214,775 a change of -1.21%
    • The daily VIX closed at 21.55, while previous close was 21.63, a change of -0.38% Lower than previous close. While the Normal Range for India VIX is 18 to 11
    • The Index PCR is 0.74 while yesterday it was 0.79 a change of -0.05 or -6.32 %, which might suggest that more calls have been written and added into the Open Interest — and while the normal range is 1.1 to 0.83 The Index Futures Volumes are likely to go up in the context of 2 to 5 days. On the other hand the Index Option Volumes are likely to go up in that same period as well The Index Options PCR is likely to remain depressed for next few days, which could indicate that a bearish sentiment might prevail amongst the majority of Option Writers for next few days
    • Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 9000 with Open Interest at 7,088,450 a change of -8% and IV of 21.46 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 3.1.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 8900 with Open Interest at 5,732,175 a change of -7% and IV of 19.46 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 1.2.
    • Largest Change OI in Calls is for 9100 with Open Interest at 3,290,750 a change of -20% and IV of 24.07 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 14.9.
    • Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 8700 with Open Interest at 4,496,375 a change of 4% and IV of 17.6 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 0.4.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 8500 with Open Interest at 3,431,625 a change of -0% and IV of 22.76 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 0.1.
    • Largest Change OI in Puts is for 9000 with Open Interest at 1,129,425 a change of -34% and IV of – with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 47.4.
  11. USDINR Pair: The RBI Reference Rate for 1 US Dollar was 62.2758 and it Gained against the INR by about 0.092 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was 5.5% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 25,89,386. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 62.1561



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Daily Outlook

The Gallop of Epona

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  • Recap:Warning: Nifty is approaching the Climax of the rise from 8470, avoid carrying heavy positions overnight. Nifty would continue to inch up ever so slowly now.
  • Nifty opened up smartly at 8895.50 but failed to sustain higher levels around 8900, as evidenced by the fact that the day high was 8899.95, and after quickly registering the day low at 8816.30 traded sideways for most part of the day. The closing was nearer the day low, as has been noticed for past few sessions that closing happens near the day low or day high, but ineffectual factor, as far as the indication for probable direction is concerned.
  • The Stop Loss on closing basis for longs is 8745. However it’d be best advised that people holding long positions should limit their long exposure below 8790.
  • Nifty seems to be consolidating around 8861 for the magnum opus. The trend at intermediate degree is changing, but it continues to be bullish in the short term as long as Nifty doesn’t close below 8745.
  • The RSI 14 is hanging around 60. RSI 5 is at 59. RSI 5 has formed a positive reversal within the last 5 bars. This might lead to a bounce towards 8930 odd levels, as long as 8790 is not breached.
  • The candlesticks that have formed in last two trading sessions carry bearish connotations. But they are within the range of the previous swing, so they need a confirmation, like breaking of 8790 on closing basis.
  • Although Nifty traded in red for most part of the day, and closed near the low of the day, the market breadth wasn’t bad at all, indicating that there was not much selling pressure.
  • Volumes were above average, whichi suggests controlled distribution. It is to be expected since apparently Nifty is in the process of forming a medium term top at these levels.
  • The Futures data suggest long rollover to March Series. Whereas Options data suggest that 8800 +/- 20 points continue to be a good support in Feb Series, and 9000 +/- 20 points continue to be a strong resistance for the same series. To sum up the OI data Nifty is rangebound between these two levels.
  • For Monday, 23 Feb 2015, Nifty is expected to continue in consolidation mode, with a visit to 8920 a distinct possibility.
  1. Price Action: On Fri 20 Feb 2015, the CNX Nifty Index opened at 8895.5 ( 12 Points Higher than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 8899.95 ( -14 Points Lower than Previous High ) it made a low of 8816.3 ( 21 Points Higher than Previous Low ) closed at 8833.6 ( -62 Points Lower than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 203,714,864 ( -7% Lower than last trading session, and about 13.4% Higher than Average. The Volume figures were about 62.04% of Standard Deviation Above the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q1, the First Quartile of it’s True Range. The Color of the candle was Black with the wick was equal to 4.45 Points, and the body was equal to 61.9 and lower shadow was equal to 17.3
  2. Momentum: The BSAR Pivot is at 8748. The RSI (14) is at 60.2 Dn by 5 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, RSI (14) tends to get Overbought above 68 Oversold below 40 The W%R (29) is at -20.2 Dn by 8 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, the W%R (29) tends to get overbought above -4 and Oversold below -67. The RSI (5) smoothed using Inverse Fisher Transform is at 88.7 a change of -10.9 points; the maximum value achieved in last three session is 99.6
  3. Trend: The ADX (14) is at 23.3 Up by 0.3 points from previous close. The VHF(29) is at 0.4 Dn by 0 points. For CNX Nifty the ADX (14) usually hovers between 35 and 15 and VHF (29) usually hovers between 0.46 and 0.24
  4. Moving Averages and Pivot Points: The 5 Day Moving Average is at, 8824; and the Short Term 13 Day Moving Average is 8766; and the 34 Day Moving Average is at 8614; and Medium Term 50 Day Moving Average is 8489; and the Long Term, 200 Day Moving Average is at 7966. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH
  5. Market Breadth: As on Fri 20 Feb 2015, the Market Breadth was 1.01, which is considered as Average , while at the end of the last trading session it was 0.89. The McClellan Oscillator reading was 15.41, which is considered as Normal
  6. Nifty is going to be Extremely Over Sold at 8671, Over Sold at 8716 the mean is at 8825, Over Bought at 8934 and Extremely Over Bought at 8979
  7. Volumes: On Friday 20 Feb 2015 Volume was 203,714,864 which was Above Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Below Average – somewhere around 187,800,000. The MFI reading was 55.7 while previously it was 54.1. The MFI tends to get Overbought above 72 and Oversold below 38
  8. Trend as per volume data: As per the EOD data available, the 2 EMA of Force Index (FI) read in conjunction with the 13 EMA of FI and 21 SMA of Closing Prices indicates that Nifty is currently BUY ON DIPS
  9. Index Futures: The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Friday 20 Feb 2015 was 27,376,525 while previously it was 27,701,550 a change of -1.17% which is considered to be The Cost of Carry of the Current Series Expiring on 26-Feb-2015 was 10.91% while previously it was 12.21% while the change in Open Interest was -7.78% which might suggest LONGS UNWINDING in the Current Series. The Cost of Carry of the Mid Series Expiring on 26-Mar-2015 was 9.19% while previously it was 9.06% while the change in Open Interest was 61.48% which might suggest LONGS ADDITION in the mid series.
  10. Index Options : The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Friday 20 Feb 2015 was 108,943,650 while previously it was 105,495,400 a change of 3.27%
    • The daily VIX closed at 21.27, while previous close was 20.4, a change of 4.27% Higher than previous close. While the Normal Range for India VIX is 18 to 11
    • The Index PCR is 0.91 while yesterday it was 0.99 a change of -0.07 or -8.08 %, which might suggest that more calls have been written and added into the Open Interest — and while the normal range is 1.09 to 0.83 The Index Futures Volumes are likely to go up in the context of 2 to 5 days. On the other hand the Index Option Volumes are likely to go up in that same period as well The Index Options PCR is likely to remain bouyant for next few days, which could indicate that a bullish sentiment might prevail amongst the majority of Option Writers for next few days
    • Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 9000 with Open Interest at 7,303,175 a change of 20% and IV of 15.88 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 3.4.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 8900 with Open Interest at 5,403,575 a change of 17% and IV of 16.05 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 2.1.
    • Largest Change OI in Calls is for 9000 with Open Interest at 7,303,175 a change of 20% and IV of 15.88 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 3.4.
    • Highest IV in Calls is for 6600 with Open Interest at 219,125 a change of -10% and IV of 122.57 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 79.7.
    • Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 8800 with Open Interest at 4,301,525 a change of -0% and IV of 16.36 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 0.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 8700 with Open Interest at 3,894,375 a change of 4% and IV of 16.7 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 0.7.
    • Largest Change OI in Puts is for 8900 with Open Interest at 2,613,425 a change of -10% and IV of 15.55 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 1.4.
    • Highest IV in Puts is for 6600 with Open Interest at 6,800 a change of 3% and IV of 79.39 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 11.9.
  11. USDINR Pair: The RBI Reference Rate for 1 US Dollar was 62.255 and it Gained against the INR by about 0.01 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was 0.2% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 24,88,322. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 62.0735



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Daily Outlook

Flameout

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  • Recap:Tomorrow, i.e., on Thursday, 19 Feb 2015, Nifty is likely to continue it’s journey northwards, towards 8930, 8950 levels. But a close above 8861 is a must for Nifty to remain bullish.
  • Nifty opened gap up at 8883 then slipped to 8794.45 following which it made a smart recovery to register the day high at 8913.45 and closed at 8895.30. On the candlestick charts, the candle that formed was like a deformed hanging man.
  • Highest OI for Calls continue to be at 9000 Strike. But there was net reduction in the OI by the end of the day. Second Highest OI continues to be at 8900 and there wasn’t much change in the OI at this strike.
  • Highest OI for Puts is 8800, a big change from yesterday. The 8500 Strike which held the highest OI for most part of the series has been relegated to the second position now.
  • The Put to Call ratio has been increasing gradually and steadily, suggesting that more puts are being written than the Calls.
  • The VIX has apparently reached a stage of a plateau and continues to be at 20.
  • The Futures data suggest short unwinding and addition of longs at lower levels.
  • The Volumes for the day were quiet heavy. The body of the day was only 12.5 points. This suggests distribution. Apparently we are nearing the top of this swing.
  • Warning: Nifty is approaching the Climax of the rise from 8470, avoid carrying heavy positions overnight. Nifty would continue to inch up ever so slowly now. Thank You.
  1. Price Action: On Thu 19 Feb 2015, the CNX Nifty Index opened at 8883.05 ( 71 Points Higher than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 8913.45 ( 19 Points Higher than Previous High ) it made a low of 8794.45 ( -15 Points Lower than Previous Low ) closed at 8895.3 ( 26 Points Higher than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 219,867,400 ( 45% Higher than last trading session, and about 23.5% Higher than Average. The Volume figures were about 107.98% of Standard Deviation Above the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q2, the Second Quartile of it’s True Range. The Color of the candle was White with the wick was equal to 18.15 Points, and the body was equal to 12.25 and lower shadow was equal to 88.6
  2. Momentum: The BSAR Pivot is at 8726. The RSI (14) is at 65.2 Up by 1.1 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, RSI (14) tends to get Overbought above 68 Oversold below 40 The W%R (29) is at -12.2 Up by 1.4 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, the W%R (29) tends to get overbought above -4 and Oversold below -67. The RSI (5) smoothed using Inverse Fisher Transform is at 99.6 a change of 0.2 points; the maximum value achieved in last three session is 99.6
  3. Trend: The ADX (14) is at 23 Up by 0.4 points from previous close. The VHF(29) is at 0.41 Dn by 0.07 points. For CNX Nifty the ADX (14) usually hovers between 35 and 15 and VHF (29) usually hovers between 0.46 and 0.24
  4. Moving Averages and Pivot Points: The 5 Day Moving Average is at, 8820; and the Short Term 13 Day Moving Average is 8755; and the 34 Day Moving Average is at 8598; and Medium Term 50 Day Moving Average is 8479; and the Long Term, 200 Day Moving Average is at 7955. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH
  5. Market Breadth: As on Thu 19 Feb 2015, the Market Breadth was 0.89, which is considered as Average , while at the end of the last trading session it was 1.53. The McClellan Oscillator reading was 12.78, which is considered as Normal
  6. Nifty is going to be Extremely Over Sold at 8664, Over Sold at 8709 the mean is at 8821, Over Bought at 8932 and Extremely Over Bought at 8977
  7. Volumes: On Thursday 19 Feb 2015 Volume was 219,867,400 which was Above Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Below Average – somewhere around 189,100,000. The MFI reading was 54.1 while previously it was 54.9. The MFI tends to get Overbought above 72 and Oversold below 38
  8. Trend as per volume data: As per the EOD data available, the 2 EMA of Force Index (FI) read in conjunction with the 13 EMA of FI and 21 SMA of Closing Prices indicates that Nifty is currently IN AN UPTREND
  9. Index Futures: The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Thursday 19 Feb 2015 was 27,701,550 while previously it was 27,709,025 a change of -0.03% which is considered to be The Cost of Carry of the Current Series Expiring on 26-Feb-2015 was 12.21% while previously it was 11.41% while the change in Open Interest was -2.65% which might suggest SHORTS UNWINDING in the Current Series. The Cost of Carry of the Mid Series Expiring on 26-Mar-2015 was 9.06% while previously it was 9.04% while the change in Open Interest was 34.18% which might suggest LONGS ADDITION in the mid series.
  10. Index Options : The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Thursday 19 Feb 2015 was 105,495,400 while previously it was 104,947,325 a change of 0.52%
    • The daily VIX closed at 20.4, while previous close was 20.91, a change of -2.46% Lower than previous close. While the Normal Range for India VIX is 18 to 11
    • The Index PCR is 0.99 while yesterday it was 0.96 a change of 0.03 or 3.12 %, which might suggest that more puts have been written and added into the Open Interest — and while the normal range is 1.09 to 0.83 The Index Futures Volumes are likely to go up in the context of 2 to 5 days. On the other hand the Index Option Volumes are likely to go up in that same period as well The Index Options PCR is likely to remain bouyant for next few days, which could indicate that a bullish sentiment might prevail amongst the majority of Option Writers for next few days
    • Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 9000 with Open Interest at 6,086,350 a change of -8% and IV of 16.59 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 1.7.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 8900 with Open Interest at 4,627,250 a change of 1% and IV of 17.65 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 0.1.
    • Largest Change OI in Calls is for 9000 with Open Interest at 6,086,350 a change of -8% and IV of 16.59 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 1.7.
    • Highest IV in Calls is for 6700 with Open Interest at 276,900 a change of -8% and IV of 120.44 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 83.5.
    • Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 8800 with Open Interest at 4,313,700 a change of 13% and IV of 15.24 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 1.4.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 8500 with Open Interest at 3,876,800 a change of -2% and IV of 18.99 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 0.7.
    • Largest Change OI in Puts is for 8300 with Open Interest at 2,222,900 a change of -25% and IV of 24.12 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 22.2.
    • Highest IV in Puts is for 6600 with Open Interest at 6,600 a change of 4% and IV of 74.32 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 5.5.
  11. USDINR Pair: The RBI Reference Rate for 1 US Dollar was 62.245 and it Gained against the INR by about 0.0427 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was -0.5% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 24,83,008. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 62.0265



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Daily Outlook

Behold, He is coming with the clouds…

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  • Recap: Now for Wednesday, 18th Feb 2015, the outlook seems to be range bound with negative bias. Nifty is likely to test lower levels, but is unlikely to fall below 8718 level. Once this correction is over, Nifty would continue to move higher for 8930 odd levels
  • The Nifty was rangebound for most part of the day, though bias was overwhelmingly positive throughout the session. Nifty opened at 8811 and made a low of 8808.90 during the opening session itself, and never did it come near it. In the post lunch session Nifty continued for it’s journey towards 8930 odd levels, and registered an intraday high of 8894.30.
  • The OI data at close suggests that intraday PE buildup around 8800 was used by day traders for making some quick bucks, and the supports around this strike aren’t very robust. However 9000 continues to be a favorite with CE writers. This might indicate that 9000 +/- 20 points continue to be perceived as a strong resistance by Options Writers. Since VIX continues to be higher, it’s attracting a lot of Option Writing interest. Futures data suggest slow build up of and or rolling over of Feb longs to March Shorts.
  • Volumes have been very low for past couple of sessions, but Nifty continues to rise past some tough resistances, which indicates a general consensus among market participants about the very short term valuations.
  • Tomorrow, i.e., on Thursday, 19 Feb 2015, Nifty is likely to continue it’s journey northwards, towards 8930, 8950 levels. But a close above 8861 is a must for Nifty to remain bullish.
  • Just happened to check my e-mail, and looolzzz, there are so many comments interspersed in different posts, would take hours to reply to each one of them. So I am just replying here,(a)I don’t have any kinds of paid services, and there are no plans to start one in this lifetime;(b) if there would be any change of levels or targets, I’d post that information here.(c)I run intraday thread under the pseudonym of pk_chivas on vfmdirect.com. Thanks
  1. Price Action: On Wed 18 Feb 2015, the CNX Nifty Index opened at 8811.55 ( -20 Points Lower than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 8894.3 ( 24 Points Higher than Previous High ) it made a low of 8808.9 ( 15 Points Higher than Previous Low ) closed at 8869.1 ( 59 Points Higher than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 152,152,801 ( 8% Higher than last trading session, and about -13.2% Lower than Average. The Volume figures were about -60.93% of Standard Deviation Below the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q3, the Third Quartile of it’s True Range. The Color of the candle was White with the wick was equal to 25.2 Points, and the body was equal to 57.55 and lower shadow was equal to 2.65
  2. Momentum: The BSAR Pivot is at 8705. The RSI (14) is at 64 Up by 2.7 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, RSI (14) tends to get Overbought above 68 Oversold below 40 The W%R (29) is at -13.6 Up by 6.4 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, the W%R (29) tends to get overbought above -4 and Oversold below -67. The RSI (5) smoothed using Inverse Fisher Transform is at 99.4 a change of 1.3 points; the maximum value achieved in last three session is 99.4
  3. Trend: The ADX (14) is at 22.5 Up by 0.2 points from previous close. The VHF(29) is at 0.49 Up by 0.04 points. For CNX Nifty the ADX (14) usually hovers between 35 and 15 and VHF (29) usually hovers between 0.46 and 0.24
  4. Moving Averages and Pivot Points: The 5 Day Moving Average is at, 8783; and the Short Term 13 Day Moving Average is 8731; and the 34 Day Moving Average is at 8580; and Medium Term 50 Day Moving Average is 8470; and the Long Term, 200 Day Moving Average is at 7945. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH
  5. Market Breadth: As on Wed 18 Feb 2015, the Market Breadth was 1.53, which is considered as Good , while at the end of the last trading session it was 0.75. The McClellan Oscillator reading was 14.79, which is considered as Normal
  6. Nifty is going to be Extremely Over Sold at 8627, Over Sold at 8673 the mean is at 8783, Over Bought at 8894 and Extremely Over Bought at 8939
  7. Volumes: On Wednesday 18 Feb 2015 Volume was 152,152,801 which was Below Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Above Average – somewhere around 188,900,000. The MFI reading was 54.9 while previously it was 55.6. The MFI tends to get Overbought above 72 and Oversold below 38
  8. Trend as per volume data: As per the EOD data available, the 2 EMA of Force Index (FI) read in conjunction with the 13 EMA of FI and 21 SMA of Closing Prices indicates that Nifty is currently IN AN UPTREND
  9. Index Futures: The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Wednesday 18 Feb 2015 was 27,709,025 while previously it was 27,625,600 a change of 0.3% which is considered to be The Cost of Carry of the Current Series Expiring on 26-Feb-2015 was 11.41% while previously it was 14.76% while the change in Open Interest was -1.92% which might suggest LONGS UNWINDING in the Current Series. The Cost of Carry of the Mid Series Expiring on 26-Mar-2015 was 9.04% while previously it was 9.83% while the change in Open Interest was 41.53% which might suggest SHORTS ADDITION in the mid series.
  10. Index Options : The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Wednesday 18 Feb 2015 was 104,947,325 while previously it was 103,056,175 a change of 1.84%
    • The daily VIX closed at 20.91, while previous close was 20.83, a change of 0.42% Higher than previous close. While the Normal Range for India VIX is 18 to 11
    • The Index PCR is 0.96 while yesterday it was 0.95 a change of 0.01 or 1.05 %, which might suggest that more puts have been written and added into the Open Interest — and while the normal range is 1.1 to 0.83 The Index Futures Volumes are likely to go down in the context of 2 to 5 days. On the other hand the Index Option Volumes are likely to go up in that same period The Index Options PCR is likely to remain bouyant for next few days, which could indicate that a bullish sentiment might prevail amongst the majority of Option Writers for next few days
    • Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 9000 with Open Interest at 6,613,475 a change of 6% and IV of 16.06 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 2.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 8900 with Open Interest at 4,571,950 a change of -0% and IV of 16.19 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 0.
    • Largest Change OI in Calls is for 9000 with Open Interest at 6,613,475 a change of 6% and IV of 16.06 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 2.
    • Highest IV in Calls is for 6800 with Open Interest at 50,800 a change of -3% and IV of 93.78 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 57.8.
    • Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 8500 with Open Interest at 3,950,725 a change of 2% and IV of 19.9 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 1.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 8800 with Open Interest at 3,828,025 a change of 6% and IV of 16.9 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 1.
    • Largest Change OI in Puts is for 8700 with Open Interest at 3,742,075 a change of 6% and IV of 17.76 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 1.4.
    • Highest IV in Puts is for 6600 with Open Interest at 6,375 a change of -44% and IV of 70.39 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 36.5.
  11. USDINR Pair: The RBI Reference Rate for 1 US Dollar was 62.245 and it Gained against the INR by about 0.0427 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was -0.5% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 24,83,008. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 62.0265



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Daily Outlook

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  • Recap: Now it is being expected that on Monday, Nifty would continue it’s journey northwards, and test 8840 to 8900 range. And by a long shot, it’s bounce might get arrested there. After which it moves sideways with a negative bias.
  • Nifty made a high of 8870 and got sold off to 8793.40 following that. On the candlestick charts it was a black “shooting star like” candle within the range of the previous swing. The volumes were unusually low owing to the holiday on Tuesday.
  • In the intraday charts, it seems Nifty is doing a 4th wave of the move from 8470. So far it seems to have partially completed a 3 wave corrective structure from 8870 top.
  • The OI data suggests, that 8800 is being perceived to be a safe support, so Put Writers are boldly writing Puts for that Strike.
  • Now for Wednesday, 18th Feb 2015, the outlook seems to be range bound with negative bias. Nifty is likely to test lower levels, but is unlikely to fall below 8718 level. Once this correction is over, Nifty would continue to move higher for 8930 odd levels
  • Options writers could write 8500 PE. Thanks for reading this – Enjoy.
  1. Price Action: On Mon 16 Feb 2015, the CNX Nifty Index opened at 8831.4 ( 89 Points Higher than Previous Opening Price ) , made a high of 8870.1 ( 48 Points Higher than Previous High ) it made a low of 8793.4 ( 63 Points Higher than Previous Low ) closed at 8809.35 ( 3 Points Higher than Previous Close ). The Volumes were 140,637,331 ( -39% Lower than last trading session, and about -20.5% Lower than Average. The Volume figures were about -92.08% of Standard Deviation Below the Mean, and it was not an outlier figure. Nifty closed in the Q2, the Second Quartile of it’s True Range. The Color of the candle was Black with the wick was equal to 38.7 Points, and the body was equal to 22.05 and lower shadow was equal to 15.95
  2. Momentum: The BSAR Pivot is at 8673. The RSI (14) is at 61.2 Up by 0.1 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, RSI (14) tends to get Overbought above 68 Oversold below 40 The W%R (29) is at -20.1 Up by 0.4 points from previous close. When CNX Nifty is rangebound, the W%R (29) tends to get overbought above -4 and Oversold below -67. The RSI (5) smoothed using Inverse Fisher Transform is at 98.1 a change of 0.1 points; the maximum value achieved in last three session is 98.1
  3. Trend: The ADX (14) is at 22.3 Up by 0.1 points from previous close. The VHF(29) is at 0.44 Up by 0 points. For CNX Nifty the ADX (14) usually hovers between 35 and 15 and VHF (29) usually hovers between 0.46 and 0.24
  4. Moving Averages and Pivot Points: The 5 Day Moving Average is at, 8740; and the Short Term 13 Day Moving Average is 8707; and the 34 Day Moving Average is at 8561; and Medium Term 50 Day Moving Average is 8464; and the Long Term, 200 Day Moving Average is at 7935. The Market Structure is Technically Speaking, BULLISH
  5. Market Breadth: As on Mon 16 Feb 2015, the Market Breadth was 0.75, which is considered as Average , while at the end of the last trading session it was 1.22. The McClellan Oscillator reading was -6.23, which is considered as Normal
  6. Nifty is going to be Extremely Over Sold at 8581, Over Sold at 8628 the mean is at 8740, Over Bought at 8852 and Extremely Over Bought at 8899
  7. Volumes: On Monday 16 Feb 2015 Volume was 140,637,331 which was Below Average. For the next full trading session the Volumes are expected to be Above Average – somewhere around 201,400,000. The MFI reading was 55.6 while previously it was 56.4. The MFI tends to get Overbought above 72 and Oversold below 38
  8. Trend as per volume data: As per the EOD data available, the 2 EMA of Force Index (FI) read in conjunction with the 13 EMA of FI and 21 SMA of Closing Prices indicates that Nifty is currently IN AN UPTREND
  9. Index Futures: The Open Interest in Futures at the End of the Day Monday 16 Feb 2015 was 27,625,600 while previously it was 27,179,525 a change of 1.64% which is considered to be The Cost of Carry of the Current Series Expiring on 26-Feb-2015 was 14.76% while previously it was 11.47% while the change in Open Interest was 0.94% which might suggest LONGS ADDITION in the Current Series. The Cost of Carry of the Mid Series Expiring on 26-Mar-2015 was 9.83% while previously it was 9.21% while the change in Open Interest was 16.89% which might suggest LONGS ADDITION in the mid series.
  10. The daily VIX closed at 20.83, while previous close was 20.1, a change of 3.59% Higher than previous close. While the Normal Range for India VIX is 18 to 11
  11. The Index PCR is 0.95 while yesterday it was 0.91 a change of 0.03 or 4.39 %, which might suggest that more puts have been written and added into the Open Interest — and while the normal range is 1.1 to 0.82 The Index Futures Volumes are likely to go down in the context of 2 to 5 days. On the other hand the Index Option Volumes are likely to go up in that same period The Index Options PCR is likely to remain depressed for next few days, which could indicate that a bearish sentiment might prevail amongst the majority of Option Writers for next few days
  12. Index Options : The Open Interest in Options at the End of the Day Monday 16 Feb 2015 was 103,056,175 while previously it was 100,883,425 a change of 2.15%
    • Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 9000 with Open Interest at 6,233,675 a change of 1% and IV of 16.79 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 0.3.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Calls is for 8900 with Open Interest at 4,572,100 a change of 30% and IV of 17.12 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 5.
    • Largest Change OI in Calls is for 8900 with Open Interest at 4,572,100 a change of 30% and IV of 17.12 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 5.
    • Highest IV in Calls is for 7100 with Open Interest at 14,275 a change of -10% and IV of 97.32 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 78.3.
    • Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 8500 with Open Interest at 3,881,850 a change of -6% and IV of 18.62 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 3.2.
    • Second Highest Open Interest in Puts is for 8800 with Open Interest at 3,621,250 a change of 18% and IV of 15.39 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 3.
    • Largest Change OI in Puts is for 8600 with Open Interest at 3,494,400 a change of -17% and IV of 17.49 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 6.5.
    • Highest IV in Puts is for 6600 with Open Interest at 11,325 a change of -10% and IV of 61.79 with change in OI to Volume of this strike at 24.7.
  13. USDINR Pair: The RBI Reference Rate for 1 US Dollar was 62.2023 and it Gained against the INR by about 0.0663 (based on RBI Reference Rate). Change in Open Interest at the End Of the Day was 3% and the Actual Open Interest at End Of the Day was 24,94,766. The Daily Parabolic SAR is 61.9938



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